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Extent of BIM tool use in the industry

Don't get me wrong.  I think BIM is coming on strong.  But I have some concerns about the reality of the pace of it's expansion.  I think that we should all move in the direction of BIM now.  But I have some question as to how many have moved and how far they have moved.  I have no doubt that some are blazing trails and using BIM extensively if not exclusively, but that is not the norm.

Autodesk announced that in 2006 they shipped 70,000 seats of Revit.  On June 8, 2006 they stated that the achieved the milestone of 100,000 seats of Revit were installed worldwide.  Current numbers are approaching 140,000 (or so I've heard).

While this number is celebrated by Autodesk, it seems small in comparison the nearly 7,000,000 (a number I have heard used) seats of AutoCAD that are in use.  An NCARB survey reported in June 1999 that there are roughly 97,000 registered Architects in the US.  If we use a rough estimate of 6 persons supporting each registered architects, which would mean about 582000 persons who could theoretically use Revit.  Most Revit teams are 3-4 persons per project so that means that there would be around 145,500 teams of Revit users.  Out of a possible 145,500 teams (582,000/4) this would mean that only one person on each team actually owned Revit.  The number of those that actually use Revit is most likely less than the number of those actually owned.  Twenty percent of purchased seats are typically unused seats (my estimate),  which is not uncommon in the industry for mid to large firms.  So of the 140,000 it would mean that 112,000 are in use, which would reduce the active percentage to 13% of architects are actually using Revit or 1 out of 8.  And that is assuming they are all using Revit.  It is actually a mixture of the big three or four tools.  So the numbers again don't add up to overwhelming use.

If my numbers are wrong - somebody tell me what the correct numbers would be.  The actual, real numbers of BIM users.  Not the marketing hype.

So I think the penetration of Revit and BIM is over estimated in the popular thinking.  Not many are using BIM on active projects.  Not all firms that have Revit are using them on all projects.  Most are using them on a small portion of their overall workload, say 10 to 20 percent of projects. 

Some firms are championing BIM and are making great strides, but most at just starting down the road of BIM.

Not all architectural efforts will be moving to BIM.  BIM will not totally replace other tools at this time and may never displace CAD entirely.  CAD will remain a viable tool now and in the future. 

Before you think I am saying not to bother with BIM, understand that I think that you should be getting into BIM soon.  And with gusto.  I am a BIM Believer.  I just want some honest numbers on the adoption rate.

March 2006